Almost a year ago I wrote a blog post called “Shimel the NAC Prophet”. In it I poked fun at what I hold told a reporter months before the story was written, but it didn’t take a real prophet to foresee where the NAC market was going. With the recent news around consolidation in the NAC market (Vernier finally dying, Mirage getting scooped up) many are wondering what is next. Tim Greene writes today about the continuing evolution of the NAC market. I wrote yesterday that of the three NAC appliance vendors that I know of (including StillSecure) at least one of them is actively seeking strategic alternatives. I heard today that another one is pulling out of its RSA booth plans. So will NAC be a casualty of the current economy? Is it just the natural evolution of the marketplace? Is it that NAC does not work? Do I still believe in NAC?
Sometimes I wish I could write on my blog everything that I think and say in my role at StillSecure as chief strategy officer. But alas if I did it would do serious harm to our strategy, our company and would be akin to shooting myself in the foot (or somewhere else). About a year ago I gave a presentation to our executive team where I white boarded what I saw as the future of NAC from the end of 2008 through 2010. I may not speak to as many people as Rob Whitely at Forrest-er or Lawrence Orans at Gartner, but I feel that I certainly have my finger on the pulse of the NAC market as much as anyone else. Let me share with you now what I told our team over a year ago.
The NAC market would break down into three categories. The first would be infrastructure players. Cisco, Juniper, HP ProCurve, Extreme Networks, Enterasys, Aruba, etc. These guys are providing the network pipes and connections. NAC is so inherently intertwined with network infrastructure that these folks were a natural fit for NAC. They would continue to offer NAC as part of their secure pipes strategy that they were all going to push. They were not going away and would either own or partner for NAC capability.
The second group are the endpoint providers. Symantec, McAfee, Sophos and I put Microsoft in there. They had significant real estate on desktops. They already had agents there and it was a no brainer to bundle a NAC agent with it. I thought that this model had some inherent weakness. They still had to integrate with the network in order to have a premium NAC product and did not have a post-connect NAC capability. This has proven right on, except for Microsoft NAP. Symantec had to retain the old Sygate SNAC piece to be competitive and that was long in the tooth. McAfee was forced to use IPS as enforcement, a weak model or buy something (like a Lockdown). Sophos was building on the old Endforce, but seemed to be becoming more and more to relying on the unified agent model.
The third category of NAC vendor was the stand alone NAC vendor. You could break them into out of band and in line, but my feeling was that in line really did not scale. Sure they could morph into something more than NAC as what is today’s ConSentry and Nevis have done, but as NAC appliances, out of band would win out. Even still, there were too many out of band NAC vendors and many of them didn’t really scale. My prediction was that by late 2009 there would only be two or at most three NAC appliance vendors. I still stick by that prediction.
My challenge to my fellow StillSecure teammates at the time was what did we have to do to make sure we were one of the two or three survivors. They key for us was the fact that we had developed military grade NAC, not a NAC bought and bred for the edu market. Where most NAC vendors were hard pressed to show deployments of more than 10,000 devices, we were checking in excess of 300k devices a day at one location. Ultimately that scalability was what we thought would win the day.
So lets be clear. I still am very much very bullish on NAC. I think we will still have a lot of choices in NAC. Infrastructure, agent or appliance. I think more then ever the market is coming around to seeing that NAC is a versatile technology that can solve several problems. NAC today is much better then early versions. It is ready for prime time. There are multiple deployment options and not one size fits all. I hope that is clear enough.